Higher U.S. Deposit Rates Linked to 3- and 9-Point Stablecoin Growth Declines

Higher U.S. bank deposit rates were associated with slower stablecoin market-cap growth, with two models estimating 10-week reductions of about 3 and 9 percentage points after a one-basis-point rate increase.

Researchers analyzed U.S. weekly observations from January 2019 through June 2025, controlling for Bitcoin (BTC) prices, Treasury yields and financial-market conditions. In the ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimate, a one-basis-point rise in average deposit rates over a week corresponds to about 3 percentage points less cumulative stablecoin market-cap growth over the following 10 weeks, lowering modeled growth from an average of about 15% to roughly 12%.

A separate instrumental-variable (IV) estimate is larger: the same rate increase corresponds to about 9 percentage points less growth, taking the modeled pace from roughly 15% to about 6%. Both estimates leave growth positive over the 10-week period, while the OLS result may not support a causal interpretation.

USDC showed a stronger response than USDT. The results do not establish that total bank deposits or lending declined, and the sample covers only one high-rate cycle. The added model detail builds on earlier coverage of deposit rates and stablecoin growth.