Holiday Airfare Estimates Rise, but Data Do Not Tie Increases to Fuel

Domestic round-trip fare estimates for Thanksgiving and Christmas exceed year-earlier levels, but two search-based measures show different gains and do not establish whether higher fuel costs played a role.

A Sept. 25 estimate placed fares at $402 for Thanksgiving and $452 for Christmas. Those figures were up $95, or 31%, and $85, or 23%, respectively, from 2025. The estimate used a demand-weighted average of fares at the 10th percentile of prices available during the prior week’s searches. Its Thanksgiving comparison also accounted for the holiday's calendar shift.

A separate measure showed smaller increases: 15% for Thanksgiving and 16% for Christmas. It compared search-volume-weighted round-trip economy fares from Sept. 23-30, 2026, with fares from the same dates in 2025. The measures use different methods and sampling periods, so they are search-based fare snapshots rather than a single national average.

Delta's adjusted fuel expense was $4.1 billion in the September quarter, up 62% from a year earlier. Its adjusted fuel price rose 60% to $3.61 per gallon. Delta expects fuel costs for 2026 to be $6 billion higher. The figures build on an earlier Delta fuel-cost update.

Delta's adjusted total unit revenue increased 15% year over year in the quarter. Main Cabin unit revenue rose 17%, while Main Cabin seats declined by a low-single-digit percentage. The airline did not quantify how much, if any, of its fuel-cost increase is reflected in holiday fares.

Delta CEO Ed Bastian said the company expects roughly $4.5 billion in full-year pretax profit while absorbing the fuel-cost increase. “For the full year, we expect to generate a pre-tax profit of roughly $4.5 billion, absorbing a $6 billion increase in fuel costs.”