United Airlines' 2026 Earnings Outlook Slips as Fuel Costs Rise

United Airlines' latest profit forecast points to lower 2026 adjusted earnings than it projected in July, as rising fuel costs weigh on results despite growth in revenue and passenger traffic.

The airline on Oct. 20 projected fourth-quarter adjusted diluted earnings of $0.50 to $1.50 a share. United reported $5.72 a share in adjusted diluted earnings for the first nine months. United had projected $9 to $11 in July.

Fuel is a major pressure on the outlook. United expects to pay an average of $4.80 a gallon in the fourth quarter, up from $3.90 in the third. Its third-quarter fuel bill reached $4.84 billion, nearly 62% more than a year earlier.

The upper end of the fourth-quarter earnings forecast is below the $1.76 a share analysts had expected. For the third quarter, United earned an adjusted $2.54 a share, compared with a $2.57 expectation. Revenue of $17.88 billion was close to the $17.9 billion estimate.

Third-quarter revenue climbed 17.4% year over year. Net income increased 8.5% to $1.03 billion, or $3.14 a share. Excluding one-time items, net income was $833 million, equivalent to the adjusted $2.54 a share.

Passenger counts grew more than 2% from the year-earlier quarter. Domestic passenger revenue per available seat mile increased 14.5%, while the international measure rose 17.4%. Those figures show that United earned more revenue relative to the seating capacity it flew, in addition to carrying more travelers.

United's revised outlook follows a cut to Delta Air Lines' adjusted earnings forecast amid higher fuel costs. United's latest results show continued growth in traffic and revenue, while its fourth-quarter forecast reflects a further increase in the price it expects to pay for fuel.