Philip Morris International Sees U.S. Q4 Adjusted Operating Income Near Zero

Philip Morris International expects U.S. adjusted operating income to be around zero or slightly negative in the fourth quarter as it increases ZYN spending and moves to 20-pouch cans, a change also expected to weigh on net revenue.

The U.S. outlook concerns adjusted operating income, not the company’s overall profit. Separately, Philip Morris International forecasts full-year 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $8.29 to $8.44 at prevailing exchange rates. The two figures cover different measures and periods: one is a fourth-quarter U.S. outlook, while the other is an annual EPS forecast.

The company attributes the expected U.S. pressure to exceptional spending, particularly on ZYN initiatives. It is also transitioning to 20-pouch cans. The change is expected to reduce revenue per pouch by about 25% and negatively affect fourth-quarter net revenue. The company has framed the new can format as a way to reset value for consumers.

Recent results provide context for the outlook. In its third-quarter results, Philip Morris International reported net revenue of $11.4 billion, up 5.5% from a year earlier, and adjusted EPS of $2.36, up 5.4%.

The third-quarter figures are reported results, while the $8.29-to-$8.44 range is the company’s full-year adjusted EPS forecast. The near-zero outlook applies to U.S. adjusted operating income in the fourth quarter. The expected impact from the 20-pouch transition is also specific: lower revenue per pouch and pressure on fourth-quarter net revenue.