American Airlines Projects $2.8 Billion Q4 Fuel Cost Increase

American Airlines expects fourth-quarter fuel expense to rise $2.8 billion from a year earlier as it forecasts an adjusted per-share loss and budgets for sharply higher fuel prices.

The airline’s average fuel-price assumption for the quarter is about $4.70 per gallon, based on the forward curve as of Oct. 19. The projected price is nearly double the year-earlier level. It is a forecast for the quarter, not a realized average.

American projects fourth-quarter revenue growth of 19.5% to 22.5% year over year. Available seat miles, a measure of capacity, are expected to increase 5.5% to 6.5%. Unit costs excluding special items, fuel and profit sharing are forecast to rise 2.5% to 3.5%.

The airline’s adjusted loss outlook is $0.50 to $1.10 per diluted share. Its adjusted guidance excludes net special items, and American cannot reconcile certain forward-looking measures with generally accepted accounting principles because the nature or amount of those items is not yet known.

Fuel costs were higher in the third quarter as well. Aircraft fuel and related taxes totaled $4.635 billion, up 67.5% from $2.767 billion a year earlier. The average fuel price, including related taxes, was $3.85 per gallon, compared with $2.37 in the third quarter of 2025.

American recorded third-quarter revenue of $16.335 billion, up 19.3% year over year. It posted a GAAP net loss of $269 million, or $0.41 per diluted share, and an adjusted net loss of $182 million, or $0.28 per diluted share.

For the full year, American now projects an adjusted loss of $1.00 to $1.60 per diluted share. Its July guidance ranged from a $0.65 loss to $0.65 in earnings per diluted share, before the October forecast revision.

American also expects network growth in 2027 to slow from 2026 levels. CEO Robert Isom said the airline remains focused on “restoring profitability and building a stronger American for the long term.”