Hilltop Raises 2026 Bank Loan Growth Forecast to 7% to 8%

Hilltop Holdings lifted its 2026 growth outlook for average bank loans to 7% to 8%, extending a two-quarter rise in its forecast as PlainsCapital Bank’s held-for-investment loans grew during the third quarter.

The new range follows forecasts of 4% to 6% after the first quarter and 5% to 7% after the second. Hilltop’s outlook covers average bank loans and excludes retained mortgages and mortgage warehouse lending, so it does not describe growth in the company’s entire consolidated loan portfolio.

Dallas-based Hilltop Holdings conducts its Texas banking business through PlainsCapital Bank. The bank ended the third quarter with $8.4 billion in held-for-investment loans, $150 million, or 1.8%, above its balance at the end of the second quarter. The balance was up $515 million, or 6.5%, from a year earlier.

Those loan figures are quarter-end balances; Hilltop’s 2026 guidance is for average bank loans over the year. The figures therefore describe different measures of lending activity.

Deposit costs declined between the second and third quarters. Hilltop’s annualized cost of interest-bearing deposits eased to 2.34% from 2.37%, while the cost of total deposits fell to 1.72% from 1.75%.

For 2026, Hilltop projects average bank deposit growth of 0% to 2%, excluding HilltopSecurities sweep deposits. It also expects net interest income to increase 5% to 6%.