U.S. New-Home Sales Top Forecasts at 676,000 Despite September Dip

U.S. new-home sales slipped in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, topping two pre-release forecasts while the monthly decline remained statistically uncertain.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) released the estimate at 10 a.m. ET (14:00 UTC) Tuesday, Oct. 27. August’s rate was revised to 680,000, while September 2025’s rate was 714,000. The latest estimate represented a 0.6% monthly decline and a 5.3% year-over-year decrease.

The 90% confidence interval for the monthly change was ±13.8%, while the year-over-year interval was ±12.5%; both included zero. The estimates therefore do not establish that sales fell over either period. Two pre-release forecasts put September sales at 650,000 and 653,000, both below 676,000.

The annual rate expresses September’s seasonally adjusted sales pace as a yearlong figure. It is neither the number of homes sold during the month nor a forecast. The measure covers new single-family homes and counts a sale once a buyer signs a contract or a deposit is accepted. Either event can happen before construction starts or a home is finished.

An estimated 476,000 new homes were for sale at September’s end, equal to 8.4 months of supply at the reported pace. The median sale price was $400,400, compared with $385,400 in August and $416,800 a year earlier. The median price changes also had confidence intervals that included zero. The average sale price was $472,800.

“Affordability remains a significant hurdle for prospective home buyers,” said Bill Owens, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders.

Other September measures pointed in different directions: pending contracts for existing homes fell 7.3%, while completed existing-home sales rose 1.5%. The measures count different transaction stages: pending sales track signed agreements, completed sales count closings, and new-home sales register at a signed contract or accepted deposit.

The estimate is preliminary and subject to revision. A sales trend takes at least four months of data to emerge; preliminary total-sales estimates are revised by about 6.7% on average.