Mercedes-Benz Cuts 2026 Cars Outlook as China Deliveries Drop 31%

Mercedes-Benz Group cut its 2026 Cars profit outlook Oct. 27 as deliveries in China fell 31% in the third quarter, joining BMW and Volkswagen in lowering German automakers’ forecasts this year.

The company lowered its full-year adjusted return-on-sales forecast for Mercedes-Benz Cars to 2% to 3%, from 3% to 5%. It now expects group earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) to match the prior-year level, rather than come in significantly higher. Industrial-business free cash flow is expected to be significantly below the prior-year level.

Mercedes-Benz pointed to a more challenging market in China and higher fourth-quarter costs, including higher material costs. Its forecasts for Vans adjusted return on sales of 8% to 10% and Financial Services adjusted return on equity of 12% to 14% were unchanged.

Mercedes-Benz Cars delivered 86,800 vehicles in China in the third quarter, down 31% from a year earlier. Worldwide Mercedes-Benz Cars deliveries fell 8% to 407,200. The group’s preliminary, unaudited third-quarter figures included EBIT of €1.77 billion and industrial-business free cash flow of €172 million.

BMW lowered its 2026 Automotive segment EBIT margin forecast in June to 1% to 3%, from 4% to 6%. Its stated pressures included China’s downturn, conditions related to the Middle East and additional cost measures. Volkswagen cut its 2026 operating return-on-sales outlook in September to up to 1%, from 4% to 5.5%, citing a difficult market, particularly in China, as well as a Porsche goodwill impairment and restructuring expenses.

Mercedes-Benz is scheduled to publish its full third-quarter report Wednesday, Oct. 28, at 2 a.m. ET (06:00 UTC).