Intel Faces Q3 Earnings Test as Revenue Is Expected to Rise 21%

Intel will post third-quarter results after the U.S. market closes Thursday, Oct. 29, with investors looking for signs that AI-related server demand can support growth and for clues on Q4 guidance and capital spending.

Analysts expect revenue of $16.5 billion, roughly 21% above the same quarter a year earlier, and adjusted earnings of $0.40 per share, compared with $0.23 a year ago. The revenue estimate is within Intel’s July outlook, which projected $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion in sales, adjusted earnings of $0.38 per share and an adjusted gross margin of 42%.

Analysts project about $6.6 billion in data-center revenue and roughly $8.8 billion from PC chips. AI demand is supporting sales of data-center CPUs. In the PC market, higher memory and storage costs are pushing up computer prices and are expected to restrain unit sales while lifting average selling prices.

Analysts have offered differing views on Intel’s prospects. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu upgraded the stock from neutral to buy and set a $125 price target, citing the possibility that AI-agent growth will keep server CPU supply tight for years. KeyBanc maintained its overweight rating and $155 target, with a third-quarter forecast of $16.9 billion in revenue and $0.46 per share in earnings, above the broader analyst estimates.

JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur recently moved Intel from underweight to neutral while keeping an $85 price target. Sur recognized improvements in product execution, manufacturing yields and advanced packaging, while expecting Intel to lose market share for several more quarters, particularly in server CPUs.

Capital spending and the next-quarter outlook are also in focus. Intel Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said in July that stronger demand led the company to raise its 2026 capital-spending forecast from $18 billion to $20 billion, with spending expected to increase significantly in 2027. He also said Intel had signed some CPU and custom-chip supply agreements lasting three to five years; the terms could be renegotiated if market conditions change.

Intel’s earnings call is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET Thursday (21:00 UTC).