China’s 65-and-Older Population Surpasses Children for the First Time

China’s aging population passed a demographic milestone in 2025, with people 65 and older outnumbering children under 15 for the first time, adding pressure to the workforce and systems that support older residents.

More than 223 million people in China were at least 65, compared with roughly 213 million children age 14 and younger. The old-age dependency ratio — the number of older people relative to the working-age population — reached 23.1%, above the child dependency ratio of 22%.

China’s total population fell 3.4 million to 1.405 billion in 2025, a fourth straight annual decline. The birth rate dropped to 5.63 births per 1,000 people, the lowest since the People’s Republic of China was founded in 1949.

The shift creates a long-term economic challenge: a shrinking pool of workers must help finance pensions and provide care for an expanding older population. China is aging faster than most developed economies, adding weight to how many people work, their productivity and how long they remain healthy.

“The costs of an ageing population fall more heavily on pensions, healthcare and long-term care,” said Stuart Gietel-Basten, a professor of social science and public policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He also described workforce size, productivity and the length of people’s healthy lives as important factors for China’s economy.

Beijing is gradually raising retirement ages to 63 for men, 58 for women in white-collar jobs and 55 for women in blue-collar jobs.

Efforts to lift births have not reversed the decline. Beijing enforced a one-child policy from 1980 through 2015, then permitted two children from 2016 and as many as three from 2021, later removing penalties for larger families. Many couples still cite high housing, education and childcare costs when deciding against having children. China also announced in 2025 that it would provide an annual $540 subsidy for each child under age 3. The longer decline in births has unfolded alongside rapid urbanization and earlier limits on family size.

The demographic shift is opening a larger market for goods and services aimed at older consumers. Beijing expects the “silver economy” to grow to $4.5 trillion by 2035.