TotalEnergies Outlook Projects Warming of Up to 2.8°C by 2100

TotalEnergies’ eighth Energy Outlook estimates warming of 2.6°C to 2.8°C by 2100 in its Trends scenario, setting out one of three global energy pathways the company maps through 2060.

Published Nov. 2, the outlook’s Trends pathway extends current policy directions, technology development and consumer behavior. TotalEnergies says grid constraints, geopolitical tensions and costs limit the deployment of low-carbon technologies in this scenario. Global demand for petroleum products rises and levels off during the 2030s before gradually declining, while gas demand grows before stabilizing in the 2040s.

The company’s Momentum scenario estimates warming of 2.3°C to 2.4°C by 2100. It assumes countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development approach carbon neutrality by 2050 and China does so by 2060. Even along this path, fossil fuels supply half of energy-demand growth in India and the rest of the world amid insufficient investment in low-carbon energy.

Rupture estimates warming of 1.8°C to 1.9°C by 2100 and is built around a 2050 endpoint intended to limit warming to below 2°C. TotalEnergies describes that path as out of reach under current geopolitical rivalries and says it would require stronger multilateral cooperation. The three temperature ranges reflect separate scenarios with different assumptions, rather than a single central forecast.

TotalEnergies puts investment in low-carbon energy, including end-use electrification, at $2.1 trillion in 2025, up from $1.2 trillion in 2015. For the United States, the outlook projects fossil fuels’ share of primary energy will decline from about 80% today to around 60% in 2060. It also projects U.S. electricity production will grow, partly as data centers and artificial intelligence drive demand.

Aurélien Hamelle, TotalEnergies’ president for strategy and sustainability, said current trends “do not support an acceleration sufficient to achieve the goal of limiting warming to below 2 degrees.” The company cautions that its forward-looking information is based on assumptions and may prove inaccurate.