Match Group Sees One-Point 2027 Fee Drag as Tinder DAU Grows in September

Match Group expects in-app purchase fees to trim its 2027 adjusted EBITDA margin by one percentage point, while Tinder’s daily active users returned to year-over-year growth in September after three and a half years.

That return was confined to September. Tinder’s daily active users were still down 1% year over year for Q3, the quarter ended Sept. 30, although the decline narrowed from 4% in Q2. The monthly and quarterly results cover separate periods, so September’s increase did not erase the full-quarter decline.

Other Q3 user and revenue measures also fell. Tinder’s monthly active users declined 5.5% year over year, payers fell 4% to 8.9 million and direct revenue slipped 2% to $480 million.

Match Group Chief Financial Officer Steve Bailey gave the one-percentage-point estimate on the Nov. 2 earnings call. He linked the expected margin pressure to current app-store policies and the expiration of Match’s Google partnership, which has offset some Android billing fees.

Apple’s in-app purchase fee in the European Union rose from the low-20% range to 26% effective Oct. 1. Match expects that increase to add $20 million in costs in 2027. Its Google partnership is scheduled to expire in Q1 2027, and the company expects Play Store fees to rise meaningfully starting in Q2. Match has not quantified that increase.

The one-point estimate covers fee pressure, not Match’s full-year 2027 margin target. Match reported a 39% adjusted EBITDA margin and $344 million in adjusted EBITDA for Q3, up 14% year over year. The prior-year quarter included a $61 million legal-settlement charge; excluding it, adjusted EBITDA was down 5% year over year.

The fee forecast applies to Match Group, while the user outlook is specific to Tinder. Match expects Tinder’s direct revenue to grow year over year in 2027, with payer growth by Q4 and monthly active users flat year over year by the end of that quarter. Bailey said the company will provide detailed 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance, including a full-year margin target, in February.