First Watch Raises Annual Adjusted EBITDA Growth Target Above 15%

On Nov. 3, First Watch Restaurant Group lifted its annual Adjusted EBITDA growth target through 2028 to more than 15%, while keeping its 2027 opening plan at about 55 systemwide restaurants.

The new target replaces an annual range of 11% to 14%. The 2027 opening pace also appeared in the company’s earlier plan, outlined Aug. 4. First Watch left unit-growth rates after 2027 flexible, citing interest-rate risk and the near-term value of generating more cash.

For the 52-week fiscal year ending Dec. 27, 2026, First Watch projects about $136 million in Adjusted EBITDA, at the high end of its previous $133 million to $136 million range. Its updated outlook also calls for 2% same-restaurant sales growth, 13.5% revenue growth, 60 net new systemwide restaurants and $145 million in capital expenditures. The previous outlook had ranges of 1.5% to 3% for same-restaurant sales growth, 12.5% to 14% for revenue growth, 60 to 62 net new restaurants and $145 million to $150 million in capital expenditures. Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance includes estimated effects from completed acquisitions.

The third quarter ended Sept. 27. Revenue increased 10.7% from a year earlier to $349.9 million, compared with $316 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $39.7 million from $34.1 million, and net income increased to $4.8 million from $3 million. Same-restaurant sales grew 1%, while same-restaurant traffic fell 1.9%.

First Watch opened 16 systemwide restaurants across 11 states during the quarter and finished it with 681 locations in 33 states. The total comprised 601 company-owned restaurants and 80 franchise-owned locations.

“We delivered on our top-line plan, grew same-restaurant sales against our toughest comparison of the year,” First Watch CEO and President Chris Tomasso said.

The company’s other long-term goals include annual revenue growth of 10% to 13% and positive free cash flow beginning in 2027. First Watch did not provide a GAAP reconciliation for its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA forecast because it could not reasonably predict some items used in the calculation.