Big Tech AI Spending Growth May Slow in 2028 as Cash Pressures Rise

Major U.S. cloud providers are expected to keep increasing spending on AI infrastructure through 2027, then slow investment growth in 2028 as cash flow pressure and credit-rating concerns mount.

GF Securities lowered its forecast for global AI accelerator spending in 2028 to $1.01 trillion from $1.03 trillion. The firm said financial disparities could slow industrywide spending growth even as demand remains strong.

The projected slowdown follows a period of planned investment growth. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft have outlined combined 2026 capital-spending plans of $715 billion to $740 billion.

The companies’ plans include infrastructure and other investments beyond AI, so the combined range is not an AI-only spending figure. Alphabet forecast capital expenditures of $195 billion to $205 billion, while Amazon expects about $200 billion. Microsoft has projected about $190 billion in 2026 capital spending, and Meta forecast $130 billion to $145 billion, including principal payments on finance leases.

The company plans and the global accelerator forecast measure different things: the former covers total capital spending by four companies, while the latter estimates spending on AI accelerators worldwide. Major U.S. cloud providers are expected to keep raising AI infrastructure investment through 2027, with growth slowing in 2028.