Cummins Cuts 2026 Pickup Engine Forecast, Lowers Revenue Outlook

Cummins lowered its 2026 revenue growth outlook to about 10% and cut its North American pickup engine forecast as weaker demand weighed on third-quarter results and is expected to persist through year-end.

The company now projects 2026 revenue growth of approximately 10%, compared with its earlier range of 10% to 13%. It also lowered its full-year North American pickup truck engine shipment estimate to 118,000 to 122,000 units, from a previous range of 125,000 to 140,000. Cummins gave the new shipment estimate on its Nov. 5 earnings call; the earlier range was presented in August.

Cummins now expects an EBITDA margin of about 18.2%, within its previous range of 18% to 18.5%. The company adjusted its profitability guidance primarily because pickup demand came in weaker than expected. The margin guidance excludes charges related to the first-quarter sale of its low-pressure fuel cell business.

Cummins defines EBITDA as a non-GAAP measure. It says it cannot reconcile its forward-looking EBITDA guidance to generally accepted accounting principles because of the variability, complexity and limited visibility of excluded items.

In August, Cummins raised its 2026 revenue growth forecast to 10% to 13% after demand strengthened across several markets. The revised projection is at the low end of that earlier range.

Jennifer Rumsey, Cummins' chair and CEO, said weaker pickup demand hurt third-quarter results and was expected to continue through year-end. “We have adjusted our full-year revenue and profitability guidance primarily due to continued weaker than expected pickup truck demand in North America, which impacted our third quarter and is expected to persist through the end of this year,” Rumsey said.

Cummins expects fourth-quarter revenue to rise from the third quarter and set a new record. The company also described global power generation and North American heavy-duty truck demand as strong.

For the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026, revenue rose 13% year over year to $9.438 billion. EBITDA was $1.786 billion, or 18.9% of sales. Power Systems sales increased 15% to $2.3 billion, driven primarily by power generation demand, particularly in data center markets.