Lemonade Forecasts $5 Million to $9 Million in Q4 Adjusted EBITDA

Lemonade expects $5 million to $9 million in adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2026, a forecast that would mark its first positive quarter on the measure. The newly quantified range puts a dollar figure on a goal the company first outlined in 2022.

Lemonade projects an adjusted EBITDA loss of $47 million to $51 million for full-year 2026 and still expects its first positive full year on that measure in 2027. The Q4 forecast therefore calls for a positive quarter even as the company anticipates a full-year loss.

Adjusted EBITDA measures earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, with specified adjustments. It is a non-GAAP measure. Lemonade did not reconcile the forecast with net loss, saying it could not reasonably determine some of the required adjustments.

The company reiterated its outlook for 33% growth in in-force premium (IFP) in Q4 and full-year 2026. IFP is the annualized premium across Lemonade’s customer base at period-end. Nick Stead, Lemonade’s senior vice president of finance, said on the Nov. 5 earnings call, “our current view represents 33% Q4 and full year IFP growth at the high end of our guidance range.” Q4 period-end IFP guidance is $1.632 billion to $1.639 billion.

Lemonade also forecast Q4 revenue of $342 million to $346 million and full-year 2026 revenue of $1.231 billion to $1.235 billion. Those forecasts accompany the company’s IFP and adjusted EBITDA outlook.

For the quarter ended Sept. 30, IFP was $1.5508 billion, up 34% from a year earlier. Revenue rose 73% to $336.1 million. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $20.4 million, compared with a $25.6 million loss in Q3 2025.