Global Fossil CO2 Emissions Projected to Fall 0.4% in 2026

Global fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026, but the broader total is expected to rise, showing the forecast decline does not yet amount to a peak.

The estimate puts fossil-fuel emissions at 38.2 billion metric tons for the full calendar year. It follows a 1.2% increase in 2025. The forecast range extends from a 1.5% decline to a 0.6% increase, leaving room for either outcome around the central estimate.

The projected change varies by fuel. Oil-related emissions are forecast to fall 1.9%, natural gas emissions to decrease 0.3% and coal emissions to rise 0.6%. The expected drop in oil-related emissions is likely to be a short-term response to the Iran conflict’s energy shock.

Global energy demand is still expected to grow in 2026. Solar and wind power, along with electric vehicles, are projected to meet about two-thirds of that increase. The demand estimate covers the expected growth in energy use, while the emissions forecast measures carbon dioxide released from different sources.

The broader emissions total is projected to move higher. Including land-use change, total CO2 emissions are expected to reach 43.3 billion metric tons in 2026, up from 42.8 billion in 2025. Land-use-change emissions are forecast at 5.1 billion metric tons. The 43.3 billion figure includes land-use change, while the 38.2 billion figure covers fossil-fuel emissions.

“A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change,” said Glen Peters, research professor at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research.

The 2026 Global Carbon Budget was posted as a preprint under review on Nov. 10.