Gevo Raises 2027 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook Above $70 Million

Gevo raised its 2027 forecast for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to more than $70 million as it advances a North Dakota expansion targeting about 150 million gallons of annual low-carbon ethanol capacity by 2028.

Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure. Gevo’s full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook is above $90 million. The 2027 forecast reflects an estimated increase in 45Z value for Gevo’s existing renewable natural gas assets.

For the quarter ended Sept. 30, adjusted EBITDA was $44 million, revenue was $83 million and net income attributable to Gevo was $23 million. The quarterly results included about $20 million in nonrecurring revenue from banked Canadian Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) credits recognized during the period.

Recent improvements to the 45ZCF GREET model give greater recognition to avoided methane emissions from dairy manure. The increase is estimated to add more than $10 million in annual 45Z value to gross profit from Gevo’s existing renewable natural gas assets, subject to third-party validation.

The larger North Dakota expansion is separate from a debottlenecking project at the site. The debottlenecking work is on track for completion by year-end 2026 and is expected to bring annual ethanol nameplate capacity to about 75 million gallons. The planned expansion would raise annual low-carbon ethanol capacity to about 150 million gallons, with startup expected in 2028.

Gevo made progress on financing the larger expansion and secured long-lead equipment during the third quarter. The near-term capacity target is tied to completing the debottlenecking work by the end of 2026; the larger expansion has a 2028 startup target.