AI Tops Fed's Financial Risk Survey as Advanced-Computing Debt Exceeds $680 Billion

Artificial intelligence was the most frequently named potential threat to U.S. financial stability in the Federal Reserve’s fall survey, while borrowing tied to advanced computing exceeded $680 billion by October.

The Federal Reserve released its semiannual Financial Stability Report on Nov. 13. New York Fed staff collected responses from 23 contacts at broker-dealers, banks, investment funds and advisory firms in September and October. The survey asked which shocks over the next 12 to 18 months could have the greatest negative effect on the U.S. financial system.

AI was cited by 87% of respondents, compared with 50% in the spring survey, which included 20 contacts. The responses reflect the participants’ views, not those of the Federal Reserve Board or the New York Fed.

A correction in risk assets was the next most frequently cited shock, at 52%. Higher long-term interest rates drew 48%, while cyberattacks and fiscal debt sustainability each drew 43%. Respondents’ AI-related concerns included elevated equity valuations, cybersecurity threats and complex financing. They also cited sophisticated attacks by state actors and possible harm caused by frontier AI models.

The report also detailed the scale of borrowing linked to the data-center and advanced-computing buildout. Issuance exceeded $680 billion by October 2026, about five times the $130 billion issued over all of 2023. Advanced-computing-related debt accounted for less than 6% of nonfinancial investment-grade corporate debt issuance in 2023 and about 31% in 2026.

Outstanding public debt related to advanced computing was estimated at more than $1.1 trillion as of October. Private-credit deals make the total amount of outstanding advanced-computing-related debt harder to measure. Financing also spans private debt, structured credit and project finance, in addition to corporate bonds, alongside growing future lease commitments and guarantees from large technology companies.