Bloomberg Panel Signals Four Macro Forces That Could Shape Crypto Markets in 2026

A recent Bloomberg podcast featuring Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, Mario Parker, managing editor for US politics, and Parmy Olson, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering artificial intelligence, offered a wide-ranging discussion on the global economy, US politics, AI, trade, and monetary policy. Although cryptocurrency was never directly mentioned during the nearly 48-minute conversation, several themes raised by the panel are highly relevant for digital asset markets as investors look ahead to 2026.

One of the most critical issues discussed was the future independence of the US Federal Reserve. Orlik emphasized that market confidence relies heavily on the Fed’s ability to control inflation without political interference. With President Donald Trump set to appoint a new Fed chair when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026, concerns are growing about potential pressure on monetary policy. For crypto markets, this creates a dual scenario. On one hand, weakened confidence in the US dollar could strengthen Bitcoin’s role as a store of value and “digital gold.” On the other, uncertainty around central bank credibility could spark risk-off sentiment that temporarily weighs on crypto prices.

Artificial intelligence was another focal point, with Olson warning that the AI sector may face a correction reminiscent of the dot-com bubble. Despite massive user adoption, monetization remains limited for many AI platforms. A downturn in AI stocks could spill over into broader financial markets, dragging down risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, which remain closely tied to overall market sentiment.

Trade policy and tariffs also emerged as a key macro risk. Orlik noted that while tariffs were slow to impact prices in 2025, their effects on inflation, corporate margins, and equities may become more visible in early 2026. Persistent inflation could delay interest rate cuts, reducing liquidity and slowing capital flows into crypto. However, in a stagflation environment, Bitcoin could regain attention as a potential inflation hedge.

Finally, the panel discussed political dynamics that could affect dollar stability. If post-midterm gridlock limits legislative power, increased influence over the Fed could unsettle bond markets and weaken the dollar. Historically, periods of dollar instability have aligned with rising demand for decentralized digital assets. As 2026 approaches, these macro forces suggest that crypto market direction will hinge on monetary policy, political outcomes, and global risk appetite, particularly during the first half of the year.