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XRP price faced sharp selling pressure after President Donald Trump confirmed major US combat operations against Iran, following reports of US and Israeli missile strikes. Rising geopolitical tensions sparked a broad crypto market sell-off, dragging XRP down to $1.27 and wiping out its early 2026 rally from $2.40. At the time of writing, XRP is trading near $1.32, down 2.02% in the past 24 hours and over 30% in the last month.
Despite the recent decline, on-chain data suggests limited resistance between $1.76 and $1.80, where approximately 1.85 billion XRP—worth nearly $2.83 billion—was accumulated. XRP is currently holding above the crucial $1.27 support level. A breakdown below this zone could invalidate the bullish outlook and potentially push the XRP price toward $1.11, signaling a deeper bear phase. However, continued consolidation remains possible as global uncertainty weighs on investor sentiment, making March a pivotal month for the cryptocurrency.
Technical analysis indicates that XRP remains above a multi-year ascending trendline that has acted as support since 2018. Historical patterns show that previous retests of this curve were followed by strong breakout phases. Some analysts suggest XRP may be entering another support phase before a potential rally, with long-term cycle projections pointing to ambitious targets as high as $21.5 to $27.6.
On-chain metrics further reveal that XRP is currently in a capitulation phase, as reflected by the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) indicator. Many holders are sitting on unrealized losses, a condition that historically marks the final stage of a downtrend. Previous capitulation periods lasted nearly a month, and the current phase, which began in early February, could conclude in early March.
Meanwhile, the broader crypto market cap has fallen to $2.24 trillion. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains below 1, indicating that most XRP is being sold at a loss. A sustained move above 1 would signal renewed profitability and potentially confirm the beginning of an XRP price recovery. Seasonality data shows that March has historically delivered an average 18% return for XRP over the past 12 years, though escalating geopolitical risks could continue to impact price momentum.
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