Bitcoin’s Quantum Computing Risk Is Real but Still Years Away, CoinShares Says

Quantum computing is often portrayed as an existential threat to Bitcoin, but a new research note from digital asset investment firm CoinShares suggests those fears are premature. According to the report, while Bitcoin’s cryptography could theoretically be vulnerable to future quantum advances, current quantum technology is nowhere near powerful enough to pose a real or immediate risk.

CoinShares researchers argue that quantum attacks on Bitcoin remain a long-term engineering consideration rather than an urgent crisis. Such attacks would involve quantum computers breaking cryptographic keys that secure Bitcoin wallets or transactions, potentially allowing attackers to derive private keys from public data. However, estimates cited in the report indicate that an attacker would need millions of qubits to crack Bitcoin’s cryptography within a practical timeframe. Today’s most advanced quantum systems fall short by several orders of magnitude.

The research suggests that even optimistic projections place meaningful quantum risk in the 2030s or later. Current quantum machines are estimated to be between 10 and 100,000 times too weak to threaten Bitcoin in real-world conditions. While legacy Bitcoin addresses that expose public keys could be more vulnerable over very long horizons, modern address formats conceal public keys until funds are spent, significantly reducing exposure.

CoinShares estimates that around 1.7 million BTC, roughly 8% of total supply, are held in older P2PK addresses. Even in an extreme quantum attack scenario, the firm believes the immediate market impact would be limited, with perhaps only about 10,000 BTC realistically at risk of being compromised and sold quickly.

The report also cautions against rushing major protocol changes. While post-quantum cryptographic standards already exist, moving too early could introduce new risks, such as software bugs, contentious assumptions about dormant coins, or damage to Bitcoin’s perceived neutrality. Instead, CoinShares favors a gradual, voluntary migration approach if and when quantum threats become credible.

Overall, the takeaway is measured optimism. Bitcoin’s quantum vulnerability is real but distant, and the network has clear upgrade paths to adapt if needed. Investors, the firm argues, should focus on Bitcoin’s fundamentals rather than speculative worst-case scenarios around quantum computing.