Bitcoin likely bottomed at $57,000 as four-year cycle breaks down

Bitcoin likely established a bottom near $57,000 and is entering the early phase of a new bull market. Institutional flows through spot exchange-traded funds are helping mature the market, weakening the explanatory power of the traditional four-year cycle.

In an Oct. 15 interview with Bitcoin Magazine, crypto investor and YouTuber Lark Davis said the market appeared to be at the beginning of its next major cycle, with substantial room left to develop.

Davis pointed to record whale accumulation in June, on-chain buying during ETF outflows and signals including the two-week moving average convergence divergence indicator. He said roughly 12 on-chain indicators and 12 technical indicators suggest the market likely bottomed at $57,000.

He did not rule out another sharp decline, but said calls for Bitcoin to fall to $40,000 or $20,000 amount to highly contrarian bets requiring an extreme shock and another wave of forced selling. Seller exhaustion had already emerged before buyers returned, lifting Bitcoin from $60,000 to $80,000 in a short period, he said.

The cryptocurrency market may need a few more months to reach a more intense phase of activity. Bitcoin remains about 40% below its previous high, while major assets including Ethereum and Solana are 50% to 70% below their all-time highs, leaving room for further positioning. Davis cautioned that a macroeconomic shock could still pull markets lower.

ETF flows should be assessed relative to market capitalization, Davis said. Bitcoin accounts for about 55% of the cryptocurrency market and therefore attracts larger absolute inflows, while Ethereum’s market capitalization is only about one-fifth to one-sixth of Bitcoin’s. He said Ethereum ETFs have at times recorded greater inflows than Bitcoin ETFs as a share of market capitalization.

Davis said the four-year-cycle narrative would continue to lose influence as Bitcoin increasingly follows macro forces such as global liquidity and credit cycles. Current miner output is already immaterial relative to demand, he argued, and the next halving will have even less market impact.

He attributed the cycle’s weakening to spot ETFs and growing institutional participation. Unlike earlier cycles, Bitcoin reached an all-time high before the halving, while record ETF demand accelerated its transition into a more mature market.

Davis compared the shift with the introduction of gold ETFs in 2004, after which gold rose from about $400 to roughly $2,000–$2,500 during a multiyear bull market. He said low-cost and easily accessible ETFs drew persistent passive capital into gold, and Bitcoin is undergoing a similar institutionalization process.

Although ETFs saw major outflows in February and June, long-term holders largely maintained their positions even as 10% to 15% of total assets under management left the products. Capital entering with 10- or 20-year investment horizons is creating a new long-term price floor, Davis said.

He cautioned against assuming that past price patterns will recur on a fixed schedule. The latest bear market was the shallowest and shortest on record, while the timing of its high and low diverged from historical patterns, leading Davis to conclude that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has effectively already broken.