Bitcoin enters early recovery as Q4 outlook turns constructive

Bitcoin moved beyond a bottoming process into an early recovery. Market sentiment and long-term holding trends improved, though macroeconomic conditions and supply dynamics remain key factors through year-end.

In its “Coinbase + Glassnode: Charting Crypto Q4 2026” report published on October 15, 2026, Glassnode said bitcoin entered an early recovery during the third quarter despite renewed Fed tightening and rising long-term Treasury yields. The analysis combined on-chain, market and macroeconomic data through the end of September.

The report first examined the macro backdrop and fund flows before assessing bitcoin’s on-chain and derivatives data and Ethereum’s market and network activity. Its fourth-quarter outlook was constructive while noting reasons for near-term caution. The full report is available as a free PDF.

Sentiment recovers without overheating

Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit/loss, or NUPL, returned to the Optimism/Anxiety band during the third quarter. It remained well below the Belief/Denial threshold, indicating that sentiment had improved without becoming stretched.

Long-term holders largely maintained their positions through the rally. The supply of bitcoin dormant for more than a year continued to grow as prices rose, while recently moved coins returned to circulation as newer participants re-entered the market.

A new support and resistance heatmap showed a dense supply zone just above the spot price. The zone capped the September highs, with heavier cost-basis supply above it and several overlapping layers of support below spot.

Macro conditions and fund flows to shape Q4

Glassnode also outlined the main factors that could alter its fourth-quarter view. The macro analysis covered bitcoin’s correlations with gold, equities, the dollar and Treasury yields, while spot ETF flows and stablecoin liquidity were identified as additional variables.

A new indicator map screens hundreds of on-chain and macroeconomic series for links to bitcoin’s returns over the following month. Valuation, miner revenue and derivatives positioning were also included in the analysis.

The Ethereum section examined sentiment, supply, ETF flows, decentralized finance and layer-2 activity. Detailed data and analysis are available in the full PDF report.