Hypothetical $10 Billion IBIT Inflow Would Represent About 122,000 BTC

At Oct. 19 fund values, a hypothetical $10 billion in new shares for BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) would add Bitcoin (BTC) exposure equivalent to roughly 122,000 BTC.

The figure describes a scenario, not a recorded inflow. It shows the scale of new fund shares that $10 billion could support at a particular valuation. It does not describe a single purchase on a bitcoin exchange or establish how much the asset’s price would change.

What the Basket Values Show

On Oct. 19, an IBIT basket was valued at $1,852,812.32 and represented 22.64 BTC. Each basket contains 40,000 fund shares. Dividing $10 billion by that basket value gives about 5,400 baskets; multiplying by the bitcoin per basket gives roughly 122,000 BTC. The estimate would change if the basket value or bitcoin price changed.

The distinction between buying shares and creating them matters. Most investors acquire IBIT shares from other investors. That trade changes who owns the shares but does not, on its own, add bitcoin to the trust. New shares enter through authorized participants, the firms permitted to create or redeem baskets directly with the trust.

For the hypothetical $10 billion to represent new exposure, it would have to correspond to net new creations. Trading volume in existing shares is a different measure. A large amount of trading between investors could occur without the trust receiving another bitcoin, while basket creations would change the amount of exposure represented by its outstanding shares.

How Bitcoin Reaches the Trust

Authorized participants can create IBIT shares by delivering cash or bitcoin. With a cash creation, the trust obtains bitcoin by trading directly with third parties or through Coinbase Inc., which acts as an agent with third parties using Coinbase Prime. That arrangement does not mean Coinbase Prime necessarily sells the coins to the trust.

An in-kind creation follows a different route: bitcoin is delivered to the trust in exchange for new shares. The transfer establishes that the trust received coins, but it does not reveal when those coins were originally bought. The SEC permitted in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto exchange-traded products in July 2025.

These routes limit what can be inferred from a dollar figure alone. Cash creations involve the trust obtaining bitcoin through trades. In-kind creations move bitcoin into the trust, though the coins may have been held before the shares were created. Neither route turns the hypothetical $10 billion into evidence of a single spot-market order.

Why the Issuance Comparison Has Limits

Bitcoin’s current block subsidy is 3.125 BTC. At the network’s target average of one block every 10 minutes, that works out to about 450 newly issued BTC in 24 hours, although actual production varies. The scenario’s roughly 122,000 BTC exceeds 270 days of issuance at that target rate.

That comparison conveys size, but mining is only one source of bitcoin available to buyers. Bitcoin already held by investors can also enter the market. Comparing a possible change in ETF exposure with new issuance therefore does not measure the total supply available in the market or show what price would be needed to obtain the coins.

IBIT had $65.7 billion in net assets on Oct. 19. A change in that dollar value alone would not establish an inflow, because a change in bitcoin’s price also changes the value of coins the trust already holds. Net share creations and changes in the trust’s bitcoin holdings are more direct measures of whether its exposure increased.

The Oct. 19 figures provide a way to size a hypothetical creation, not a record that it happened. To assess an actual inflow, the relevant figures would be the shares created and the corresponding change in bitcoin held by the trust, measured over the same period.