Bitcoin’s four-year cycle challenged as supply and demand take focus

Bitcoin’s supply and demand matter more than a four-year halving cycle in explaining its price moves, according to JAN3 CEO Samson Mow. His assessment centers on corporate accumulation, sovereign interest and the competition for a limited supply.

In an October 20 interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Mow rejected the idea that Bitcoin must repeat its historical four-year pattern. He described the repetition across several halvings as coincidence overlapping with election and business cycles, rather than a fixed path for the asset.

Mow pointed to Bitcoin’s scarcity and its record high before the latest halving as reasons to question the cycle framework. He also challenged bearish arguments that repeating earlier cycles would require a decline to $40,000.

He attributed Bitcoin’s recent move from the $60,000s to $89,000 to demand exceeding supply, rather than a distinct macroeconomic catalyst. In his account, selling by holders exiting voluntarily or under pressure was becoming exhausted, making the balance between buyers and available coins more relevant than explanations tied to individual events.

Corporate Bitcoin purchases can create a reinforcing relationship between accumulation and prices, Mow said. He described that mechanism as central to the design of many Bitcoin treasury companies and their preferred shares, and characterized several treasury companies, particularly Strategy, as substantially undervalued.

Mow also disputed the idea that competition with AI companies for investment capital determines Bitcoin’s direction. He described treasury companies as persistent buyers and cited governments considering Bitcoin strategies as another source of demand. He argued that preserving capital could also motivate AI companies to adopt Bitcoin holdings.

Launching Bitcoin bonds presents a timing problem, he said: lower prices offer a lower acquisition cost, but public interest tends to strengthen when prices rise. Mow contrasted participation below $100,000 with governments’ greater willingness, in his assessment, to enter at $150,000 or $200,000.

Political constraints and public perceptions have complicated sovereign adoption, according to Mow. JAN3 held meetings across Latin America after El Salvador’s adoption, but policymakers still need support for their decisions. He said many people view Bitcoin as a volatile technology stock without understanding its underlying technology or fundamentals.

Practical adoption often begins with necessity, Mow said. Many Latin American users of Aqua Wallet use stablecoins such as Tether’s USDT or exchange USDT across networks and into Bitcoin. He described stablecoins as an entry point that familiarizes users with QR-code transactions and responsibility for holding their own assets.

Mow framed Bitcoin savings and stablecoin payments as complementary uses. Individuals and merchants with obligations denominated in fiat currency still need to manage short- and medium-term volatility, he said. He extended that distinction to AI agents, describing saving in Bitcoin and spending stablecoins as a model for agent-driven commerce.