Add as a preferred source on GoogleJukan Says Lumentum Management May Expect AI Market Collapse in Two to Three Years
He tied that possible outlook to Lumentum's willingness to accept Marvell's all-stock acquisition.
Citrini analyst Jukan argued Monday that Lumentum management may expect the AI market to collapse within two to three years, interpreting its acceptance of Marvell's acquisition as a sign of limited confidence in the cycle.
Jukan tied his interpretation to the all-stock acquisition agreement, announced Monday, Nov. 2. The deal implies an enterprise value of $115 billion for Lumentum and a 23.9% premium using Lumentum's Oct. 28 unaffected price. The exchange gives Lumentum shareholders 4.5 Marvell shares for each Lumentum share, leaving them with about 33% of the combined company. Marvell expects the deal to close in the first half of 2028 and has said the combination is intended to build an industry leader in AI connectivity.
The transaction would combine Marvell's semiconductor business with Lumentum's optical networking operations. Lumentum supplies optical hardware used in data centers and communications networks, and Marvell is already a customer for its laser products.