Add as a preferred source on GoogleArthur Hayes Says AI Share Unlocks Could Tighten Credit and Pressure Crypto
He estimates 8.6 billion SpaceX shares could become eligible to trade by June 2027; he also puts potential dilution from Anthropic share unlocks at up to 83% for initial investors.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said potential share unlocks at SpaceX and possible listings of Anthropic and OpenAI could strain AI credit markets and reduce dollar liquidity, creating a potential drag on crypto markets.
In an essay titled “D is for Dilution,” Hayes estimates about 8.6 billion SpaceX shares could become eligible to trade by June 2027. He estimates the unlock at roughly another 50% in potential dilution and says it could expand the float, or pool of shares available for trading. Eligibility to trade does not mean holders will sell.
Hayes also examines a prospective Anthropic listing and assumes a possible OpenAI IPO. Based on his reading of Anthropic's filing, he estimates the company's initial investors could face up to 83% potential dilution from share unlocks over the same period. The figure is his estimate for that scenario.
Hayes' proposed pressure path begins with declining share prices at major AI companies. He argues that sustained declines could lead bond investors to demand higher yields, raising borrowing costs for those companies. If financing conditions worsen, AI-related credit markets could cool or freeze, carrying pressure from stocks into corporate borrowing.
He identifies bank lending, securities financing and proprietary trading as channels linking banks to AI activity. If AI credit markets weaken, Hayes says bank balance-sheet growth could stall or contract. He argues that such a pullback could reduce dollar liquidity and weigh on Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto assets.
Hayes has previously argued that AI data-center debt could pressure companies within 12 to 18 months and prompt a liquidity response. His latest essay adds potential share unlocks and IPOs to that broader credit-risk thesis.
He also describes a counter-scenario: If an AI bubble triggers a financial crisis, major central banks and fiscal authorities could respond with monetary expansion and liquidity support. Hayes argues that the additional liquidity could later support crypto markets.