Bitcoin Near $104K Faces Mini-Death Cross Risk as Bullish Momentum Weakens

Bitcoin is trading near $104,400, showing signs of market fatigue amid its ongoing correction phase. Despite maintaining a broadly bullish trend, technical indicators suggest growing downside risk. A key concern is the potential formation of a mini-death cross on the four-hour chart—where a short-term exponential moving average (EMA), such as the 20 or 26 EMA, crosses below the 50 EMA. While not as severe as a daily death cross, this crossover often weakens bullish momentum and triggers stop-losses, contributing to bearish sentiment.

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering just above the 26 EMA (~$104,500) on the daily chart, a level that has recently served as short-term support. A close below this level could lead to a drop toward $99,800, a crucial psychological and historical breakout zone. Further declines could see Bitcoin testing the 50 EMA at $96,500. If this level also fails, the price risks deeper correction into the high $80,000 range, where the 100 and 200 EMAs converge—potentially a worst-case scenario for bulls.

Volume has noticeably declined, reflecting reduced bullish conviction. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped toward 50, signaling a potential shift from consolidation to distribution. A daily close below $104,000 may increase the probability of a short-term breakdown, especially if buying pressure continues to fade. However, if bulls defend this level, a rebound toward the $107,000–$108,000 range remains possible. If not, the anticipated mini-death cross could act as a self-fulfilling bearish signal.

Investors should monitor price action closely as Bitcoin navigates this critical support zone with weakening momentum and looming technical risks.