Polymarket Bets Signal Short-Term U.S. Government Shutdown as Bitcoin Surges Past $125K

Polymarket bettors are wagering heavily on the ongoing U.S. government shutdown lasting until at least October 15, reflecting a strong belief that the political deadlock in Congress won’t resolve quickly. Data from the decentralized prediction platform shows a 72% probability that the government remains shut through mid-October. The betting volume for this outcome has already surpassed $1.4 million out of a $4 million contract.

However, traders appear more optimistic about the shutdown’s duration being relatively short. A separate Polymarket contract suggests a 67% chance that the shutdown will last between 10 and 29 days, while only 27% believe it will stretch beyond a month. If accurate, this would keep the current standoff below the record set during the first Trump administration — the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

Market observers are linking this political turmoil to recent bullish trends in cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin (BTC) has surged past $125,000, with analysts pointing to uncertainty surrounding the U.S. fiscal situation as a possible catalyst. Investors often turn to digital assets like Bitcoin during periods of government dysfunction and financial instability, viewing them as decentralized alternatives to traditional finance.

Congress remains at an impasse, with recent resolutions to fund and reopen the government failing to pass the necessary voting threshold. Until lawmakers strike a deal, markets are expected to remain volatile, with both crypto and prediction platforms offering real-time insights into how traders anticipate the crisis will unfold.