Wall Street Divided on Figure’s Blockchain Lending Ambitions

Two major Wall Street investment banks have issued contrasting opinions on newly public fintech firm Figure (FIGR), as it expands its blockchain-based lending and capital markets platform beyond home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) began coverage with an “outperform” rating and a $48.50 price target, implying a potential 17.5% upside. The bank praised Figure’s early dominance in tokenized credit markets, estimating it holds 73% of the private credit segment and 39% of all tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). KBW emphasized the scalability of Figure’s proprietary blockchain infrastructure, highlighting its potential to support assets such as first-lien mortgages and personal loans. The firm also cited growth opportunities from Figure Exchange and third-party tokenization tools.

Founded by former SoFi CEO Mike Cagney, Figure went public in September and has gained 12% since its IPO. Its core model digitizes HELOCs, connecting borrowers and investors through a vertically integrated blockchain platform handling origination, distribution, and secondary trading.

Meanwhile, Bernstein also issued an “outperform” rating but set a higher $54 price target, arguing that Figure is transforming lending the same way stablecoins revolutionized payments—by making traditional credit markets faster, more transparent, and efficient.

In contrast, Bank of America (BofA) took a more cautious stance, assigning a “neutral” rating with a $41 target. BofA noted risks tied to execution, regulation, and reliance on the HELOC segment, which remains the company’s main revenue source. However, it identified Figure Connect, a marketplace linking lenders and capital providers, as a major potential growth driver—expected to generate 75% of total revenue growth between 2024 and 2027.

Despite differing targets, analysts agree that Figure’s blockchain platform could redefine credit markets, though questions remain about scalability, institutional adoption, and regulatory headwinds.