Rare Friday CPI Release Puts Spotlight on Inflation and Fed Rate Cut Outlook

For the first time since 2018, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on a Friday, marking an unusual event with potentially major market implications. The September inflation report, due this Friday, arrives amid a government shutdown that has halted most federal economic data releases. This leaves the Federal Reserve with limited insights ahead of its critical October 29 policy meeting.

Typically, the CPI report is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on a Tuesday or Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. A Friday release is extremely rare—the last one occurred in January 2018. Normally, CPI data precedes Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings by one to two weeks, giving policymakers ample time to assess inflation alongside other indicators. This time, however, the CPI will be released just five days before the Fed meeting, amplifying its importance.

Market analysts say this unusual timing could fuel volatility. With no fresh data on employment or retail activity available due to the shutdown, the Fed’s decision may hinge almost entirely on Friday’s CPI reading. Current market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99% probability of a 0.25% rate cut, but a softer inflation figure could push the Fed toward a larger 0.5% reduction.

According to MarketWatch forecasts, September CPI is expected to show moderating inflation, signaling easing price pressures. However, uncertainty remains high, as data collection disruptions and political tensions could distort the broader picture. If inflation proves hotter than expected, it may complicate the Fed’s efforts to balance rate cuts with rising price risks.

As investors brace for this rare Friday CPI event, all eyes are on how a single data point could influence the Fed’s next move—and potentially reshape the near-term economic outlook.