Bitcoin’s ‘Moonvember’ Hype: Why November Isn’t Always a Bull Run

Crypto analyst Lark Davis recently called November bitcoin’s strongest month, citing an average gain near 42%. However, data from CoinGlass paints a more nuanced picture. The same heat map shows that while the mean return looks impressive, the median is far lower—around 9%—suggesting one standout year, 2013’s 449% surge, skews the numbers upward.

In crypto culture, “Uptober” and “Moonvember” have become recurring mantras on social media platforms like X, Reddit, and Telegram. “Uptober” refers to October’s reputation for turning bullish after choppy summer trading, while “Moonvember” builds on that optimism, hinting at a potential year-end rally. Both terms are a mix of meme humor and market marketing, resurfacing every autumn regardless of price performance.

Yet, November’s track record shows wide dispersion. Some years, like 2021 and 2022, ended in losses, while others—such as 2024—saw strong rallies. This volatility underscores that bitcoin’s “average” November strength is historical context, not a forward-looking signal. Analysts emphasize that seasonality should be viewed as data, not a forecast.

Traders looking to capitalize on potential upside often seek confirmation through technical signals—trend breaks, volume shifts, and market breadth—before acting on calendar-based expectations. Arithmetic that translates a 42% average return into a price projection should be treated as illustrative rather than predictive.

On X, some users revived “Moonvember” after a rare red October, citing bitcoin’s historical November gains. Others urged caution, noting that while the average may excite bulls, the median tells a truer story of modest, variable returns. In essence, “Moonvember” remains a fun seasonal meme—but bitcoin’s chart, not its calendar, still holds the final say.