Dogecoin Faces Key Support Test as Long-Term Holders Trigger Sell-Off

Dogecoin’s early November recovery appears fragile, with the meme coin up only 1.2% after a steep monthly drop of nearly 27%. Despite a brief bounce, DOGE remains under pressure, down 5.9% over the past week, as on-chain data suggests an intensifying sell trend among long-term holders.

Dogecoin’s crucial $0.17 support level — which has held firm since October 11 — is now at risk as seasoned investors begin to offload their holdings. According to Glassnode, the on-chain cost basis heatmap reveals a significant support cluster between $0.177 and $0.179, where about 3.78 billion DOGE were last accumulated. This zone has historically acted as a strong buffer during previous downturns, but that safety net is now weakening fast.

Data from Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change metric shows a sharp reversal in investor sentiment. On October 31, long-term wallet inflows of +8.2 million DOGE flipped to an outflow of –22 million DOGE within 24 hours — a staggering 367% swing. This shift signals that long-term holders are exiting, potentially eroding the $0.177–$0.179 support zone and exposing Dogecoin to further downside. If this selling continues, DOGE could fall toward the next major cost basis cluster around $0.14, implying significant downside risk.

Adding to the bearish outlook, technical indicators point to further weakness. Dogecoin’s 50-day EMA crossed below the 200-day EMA in late October, marking the start of its current decline. Now, the 100-day EMA is nearing a crossover below the 200-day EMA — a stronger “death cross” that could confirm deeper bearish momentum.

Currently trading near $0.18, DOGE faces immediate resistance at $0.20 and $0.21. Only a daily close above $0.21 would invalidate the bearish trend. Until then, Dogecoin remains vulnerable, with $0.17 as its last strong line of defense before potential losses extend toward $0.14.