Bitcoin Eyes Major Upside as US–India Trade Deal and Government Shutdown Talks Boost Market Optimism

The cryptocurrency market could be on the verge of a major breakout this week as two key macroeconomic developments converge — a potential US–India trade agreement and progress toward ending the US government shutdown. Together, these events could inject liquidity and optimism back into global markets, providing a strong tailwind for Bitcoin and other digital assets.

US President Donald Trump announced that Washington is “very close” to finalizing a trade deal with India. Reports from Reuters and NDTV suggest the agreement would reduce tariffs on Indian exports from around 50% to 15–16%, while India would limit Russian oil imports. Such a move could stabilize trade relations in Asia and boost India’s export sector ahead of its 2026 elections. Analysts believe the deal’s confirmation could strengthen emerging-market currencies, weaken the dollar, and enhance risk appetite — all favorable conditions for Bitcoin.

At the same time, the US Senate has advanced a bipartisan bill that could end the six-week-long government shutdown by mid-to-late November. The bill proposes funding through January 2026, including back pay for federal workers. The prolonged shutdown has tied up over $850 billion in the Treasury General Account, constricting liquidity and pressuring risk assets. Once the government reopens, the Treasury is expected to release $250–350 billion back into circulation, which could act as a powerful liquidity boost for markets.

Crypto has closely mirrored liquidity shifts throughout 2025. Bitcoin’s recent 5% decline since July aligned with tightening conditions, yet large holders accumulated roughly 29,600 BTC ($3 billion) during the downturn. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes calls this “stealth QE,” where government spending indirectly expands liquidity. If both catalysts align this week, Bitcoin could reclaim the $110,000 level as liquidity returns, real yields soften, and investor sentiment strengthens. This could mark a pivotal moment for the next crypto market uptrend.