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Traders on the prediction platform Polymarket saw massive gains this morning after a rumor circulated claiming that Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), had begun selling its bitcoin (BTC). The market reaction was swift: a contract that started the day at just 3% odds of Strategy selling any BTC before January 1, 2026 briefly spiked to 45% as traders rushed to place bets during Nasdaq’s pre-market hours.
At the same time, shares of MSTR plunged to an early low near $193 before rebounding above $200 once the U.S. market opened at 9:30am in New York. The entire frenzy stemmed from a misinterpreted screenshot from blockchain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence. Arkham had simply displayed BTC transfers in red text — a harmless design choice — but anxious observers took this as a signal that Strategy was offloading bitcoin. Many also assumed that the presence of coins on an exchange automatically meant they were being liquidated.
Saylor moved quickly to dispel the rumor, confirming that Strategy had not sold any BTC. The transfers were routine movements to an exchange wallet rather than indicators of sell-side activity. His clarification helped calm markets, and Polymarket odds quickly dropped back toward their original levels, now sitting near 4%.
The scare came at a sensitive time for crypto markets, which have lost roughly $1 trillion in value over the past five weeks. Bitcoin itself is flat on the year, slipping from its $126,000 high back toward $97,000. Strategy has performed even worse, down 29% year-to-date, and its market cap has fallen below the value of its BTC reserves. For over two years, MSTR stock has lagged behind bitcoin’s own performance.
Tracking the company’s BTC movements remains challenging, as Saylor continues to decline requests for wallet transparency or proof-of-reserves attestations. Still, after posting an AI image encouraging holders to “HODL,” he reaffirmed that no bitcoin had been sold.
Polymarket’s volatility highlights how thinly traded prediction markets — this one seeing just $1 million in volume — can be swayed by rumors. And while their “odds” often attract attention, they rarely reflect true probabilities, especially in an industry long criticized for loose regulation and susceptibility to manipulation.
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