XRP Shows Signs of Stability but a True Recovery Remains Distant

XRP is finally finding its footing after a sharp and painful sell-off in November, yet the renewed wave of social media optimism—especially predictions of a quick return to the $3 region—does not reflect what the charts currently reveal. The recent rebound did produce a strong relief candle, with XRP bouncing cleanly off the lower boundary of its declining channel, but this movement signals stabilization rather than a full trend reversal.

For nearly two months, XRP has been trading inside a downward-sloping channel marked by persistent lower highs. Every rally attempt has been met with rejection near the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, highlighting the ongoing strength of sellers. The latest bounce lost momentum the moment it approached the channel’s mid-range, reinforcing that bearish pressure still dominates despite the short-term recovery.

Moving averages echo this caution. The 200-day EMA sits firmly overhead as a long-term resistance barrier, while the 50-day and 100-day EMAs continue trending downward. A market preparing for a decisive return toward $3 typically shows rising momentum, expanding volume and clear trend-reversal signals—conditions XRP simply does not meet at this stage.

Momentum indicators add further warning. Although the RSI has recovered from oversold territory, it remains below the key 50 level, suggesting the current move is corrective rather than the start of a strong bullish impulse. This profile is consistent with assets decompressing after heavy liquidations rather than initiating a sustained uptrend.

Still, XRP does have room to climb if buying interest continues. The technical structure leaves open a potential drift toward the $2.30–$2.40 range. But expecting an immediate surge to $3 is more emotional than analytical. The token has not reclaimed any major moving averages, remains confined within a declining channel and recently lost nearly 30% in value. Until these technical hurdles are cleared, optimism should be tempered with realistic expectations.