Grayscale Predicts Bitcoin Could Break Records by 2026

Grayscale Research suggests that Bitcoin may be poised to reach new all-time highs as early as 2026, challenging long-held beliefs about the crypto market’s traditional four-year cycle. In a newly released report, the firm argues that the familiar pattern of Bitcoin rising for three years and entering a steep decline in the fourth no longer reflects current market dynamics, especially as institutional participation reshapes the industry.

According to Grayscale, past assumptions tied to Bitcoin’s halving schedule are becoming outdated. Historically, the asset surged after halvings and then entered a pronounced downturn. However, the firm notes that this cycle failed to play out in 2024. Unlike previous bull markets, Bitcoin did not experience the typical pre-crash rally, signaling a potential shift in how price behavior should be interpreted.

The report highlights that today’s capital flows are dominated by exchange-traded products (ETPs) and corporate digital-asset treasuries rather than retail speculation. This structural change may support stronger, more sustained demand. Grayscale also points out that the macro environment heading into 2025 appears favorable for risk assets, which could further strengthen Bitcoin’s position.

Despite recent volatility, the firm asserts that Bitcoin’s latest 32% pullback closely mirrors historical norms. Bitcoin usually sees at least three corrections of 10% or more each year, with long-term averages around 30%—almost identical to the recent decline. This suggests the downturn is not a sign of a deep, extended bear market but instead a typical correction within a broader upward trend.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee supports this outlook, projecting that Bitcoin could set a new all-time high as soon as January 2026 based on similar market patterns and improving sentiment.

Upcoming regulatory and economic developments may further influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. The Federal Reserve’s December interest rate decision could generate short-term price movement, while reports indicate that crypto-friendly economist Kevin Hassett is a leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell. Additionally, a bipartisan Senate Agriculture Committee draft on U.S. crypto market structure may progress in 2025, potentially unlocking more institutional engagement.

Together, these factors suggest a shifting landscape where Bitcoin may no longer adhere to its traditional four-year rhythm—possibly paving the way for new highs earlier than expected.