Strategy Won’t Be Forced to Sell Bitcoin, Says Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan is pushing back against growing speculation that Strategy may soon be compelled to sell its massive Bitcoin holdings, calling the narrative “flat wrong.” In a note titled “No, Virginia, Strategy Is Not Going To Sell Its Bitcoin,” Hougan clarified that neither potential MSCI index changes nor market pressure creates any requirement for the firm to liquidate BTC.

Concerns escalated as MSCI weighs excluding digital asset treasury companies from its indexes, with a decision expected on January 15. JPMorgan recently estimated that such a removal could drive up to $2.8 billion in passive selling of Strategy stock. Hougan believes there’s a 75% chance the company is removed but maintains that index adjustments rarely move markets as dramatically as predicted. He pointed to Strategy’s prior addition to the Nasdaq-100—which required $2.1 billion in index fund buying—yet resulted in minimal price reaction. He also noted that the share price drop since October 10 likely reflects the market already pricing in MSCI-related risk.

Another investor worry centers on a proposed “doom loop,” where MSCI exclusion drives shares far below net asset value, allegedly forcing Bitcoin sales. Hougan dismissed this idea, explaining that a discount to NAV does not trigger liquidation. What matters, he said, are real payment obligations—not stock performance relative to BTC value.

Strategy recently purchased 130 BTC for about $11.7 million at an average of $89,960 per coin, raising total holdings to 650,000 BTC. The company highlighted its growing liquidity reserves, aiming to maintain enough cash to cover at least 12 months of dividends and eventually expand that buffer to 24 months. Chairman Michael Saylor has also emphasized that the firm can strategically sell overpriced BTC to fund payouts while still increasing long-term holdings.

Hougan added that Strategy’s $1.4 billion cash position can support operations for roughly 18 months and that the company’s first meaningful debt maturity—around $1 billion—doesn’t arrive until February 2027, a small figure compared to its roughly $60 billion Bitcoin treasury. While broader concerns persist, including slow crypto regulatory progress, Hougan stressed that Strategy faces no near-term pressure to sell Bitcoin, regardless of MSCI’s decision.