Bitcoin Eyes Short-Term Rebound as On-Chain Flows Improve and US Policy Shifts Loom

Bitcoin price action may be nearing a short-term rebound, according to prominent on-chain analyst Willy Woo, as improving investor flows and potential US macroeconomic policy changes align to support crypto adoption. Recent data suggests that Bitcoin investor inflows bottomed on December 24, 2025, and have been gradually strengthening since, creating a cautiously bullish setup for the coming weeks despite lingering macro uncertainty.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $90,580, a level notably below the estimated average miner production cost of roughly $101,000 per BTC. Historically, trading below miner cost has not led to widespread panic selling. Instead, miners often reduce sell pressure and slow production, forming a low-activity zone that acts as a temporary price floor. Market analysts note that similar conditions in past cycles preceded recoveries as Bitcoin reclaimed its production cost and sentiment rapidly improved.

Willy Woo emphasizes that real spot inflows, rather than narratives or correlations with traditional equity markets, remain the primary driver of Bitcoin price recovery. His models focus on measuring actual capital allocation into BTC, highlighting that markets can rally elsewhere without Bitcoin if genuine investor demand is absent. The recent uptick in flows therefore strengthens the case for a short-term rebound, even as longer-term liquidity trends remain soft.

Adding to the near-term volatility is a potential macro catalyst: US President Donald Trump’s proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, set to take effect on January 20, 2026. While designed to ease consumer debt burdens, analysts warn the policy could restrict access to traditional credit for lower-rated borrowers. This may inadvertently push affected consumers toward alternative financial systems, including Bitcoin, stablecoins, and decentralized finance platforms such as Aave and Compound.

Some market commentators believe banks and payment giants like Visa and Mastercard could face short-term volatility as they adjust risk exposure, further accelerating interest in crypto-based financial solutions. Despite these tailwinds, Woo remains cautious about the broader 2026 outlook, noting that liquidity has been weakening relative to price momentum since early 2025. This suggests that while a Bitcoin rebound is possible, sustained upside may face structural challenges.

The convergence of miner-cost support, improving on-chain flows, and policy-driven demand has created a critical inflection point for Bitcoin, setting the stage for heightened volatility and a potential short-term price recovery.