XRP Holds Tight Range as SEC ETF Decision Deadline Nears

Ripple’s XRP (XRP) was trading in a tight $1.44–$1.45 range on Saturday UTC, as traders zeroed in on a looming U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) deadline that could determine whether the token becomes one of the next major crypto assets to gain spot exchange-traded fund access.

The price action has been coiling inside an ‘ascending triangle’—a chart pattern typically associated with building upside pressure—placing the $1.50–$1.60 zone as the immediate ceiling and $1.39–$1.42 as the key support band watched by short-term market participants.

Market attention is increasingly focused on March 27, when the SEC is scheduled to reach an approval decision deadline for XRP-related ETF filings. Analysts tracking the process have pointed to elevated approval odds—often cited above 90% for products from issuers such as Grayscale and Bitwise—arguing that a green light could reprice XRP quickly as broader participation becomes structurally easier for traditional investors.

The ETF narrative has gained added momentum after XRP was classified as a ‘digital commodity’ on March 17 by U.S. regulators including the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), according to the source report. In that scenario, proponents expect a meaningful expansion of addressable demand. Some estimates discussed in the market anticipate as much as $8 billion in potential ‘institutional inflows’ should spot products launch and attract sustained allocations.

For now, the chart shows hesitation at a familiar level. XRP failed to clear the prior resistance area near $1.60 and has since slipped back into consolidation. Momentum gauges also underline the stalemate: the relative strength index (RSI) has held around 50–55, a broadly neutral zone that reflects balanced buying and selling pressure rather than a trending market.

Technicians generally frame an upside break above $1.60 as the signal that the recent compression has resolved higher, with upside targets clustered around $1.70–$1.80 if follow-through buying materializes. On the downside, traders are monitoring $1.33 and $1.20 as levels that could come into view if support breaks and risk sentiment deteriorates.

The broader backdrop has been less forgiving. XRP remains roughly 40% below its 2026 highs—reported in a wide $2.40–$3.66 range—amid macro and market headwinds. A steady Federal Reserve rate posture, cooling ETF flow momentum across the sector, and reduced ‘whale activity’ have all been cited as factors dampening speculative appetite and limiting aggressive positioning.

Longer-term projections, however, continue to hinge on U.S. legislative direction. Standard Chartered has argued that passage of the ‘CLARITY’ bill could support a materially higher valuation regime for XRP, projecting a move toward $8 by the end of 2026 under that scenario. Ripple Chief Executive Officer Brad Garlinghouse has publicly estimated an 80% probability of passage, while suggesting that failure to advance the bill could see XRP reverting toward the $2.80 area, according to the report.

On the network side, XRP Ledger activity remains a core component of the bullish fundamental case. The chain is said to process roughly 2.0–2.8 million transactions per day and to have about 7.7 million active wallets. In decentralized finance, the ecosystem is described as spanning roughly 16,000 tokens and around 27,000 liquidity pools—figures cited to support the view that usage extends beyond price speculation.

Institutional adoption claims have also continued to circulate. The report said Mastercard has integrated Ripple’s payments rails, while Deutsche Bank has completed connectivity with XRP Ledger, developments that proponents argue strengthen the narrative of real-world payments utility, even as markets remain headline-driven in the near term.

Supply dynamics are another near-term variable, though their impact may be muted. Ripple is expected to execute its fourth monthly release of 1 billion XRP from escrow in April 2026, but approximately 700 million XRP is set to be re-locked, limiting immediate net supply hitting the market and potentially reducing ‘sell-side pressure’ relative to a full unlock.

XRP’s market capitalization was reported at about $88.13 billion, keeping it ranked fourth among cryptocurrencies. With March 27’s ETF deadline approaching and the CLARITY bill’s trajectory still in focus, traders are treating a decisive move through $1.60 as a potential confirmation that upside momentum is returning—while a failure to hold support could keep XRP locked in consolidation as macro and flow conditions evolve.