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Aave (AAVE) is facing significant selling pressure as exchange reserves climb to 2.23 million tokens, up from 2.07 million since early February. Binance alone now holds approximately 1.63 million AAVE, increasing from 1.57 million over the same timeframe. This upward movement in exchange reserves has pushed holdings back above their 90-day moving average, reversing a declining trend that had been in place since April 2025 — a shift that typically signals growing sell-side risk in crypto markets.
On-chain data from Santiment reveals accelerating distribution across multiple whale cohorts. Wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million AAVE have offloaded nearly 960,000 tokens since late February, trimming collective positions from 7.45 million to 6.49 million. The 10,000–100,000 AAVE cohort followed a similar pattern, reversing earlier accumulation in mid-March and reducing holdings by roughly 140,000 tokens to 3.6 million. Meanwhile, wallets in the 1 million to 10 million range briefly expanded from 2.58 million to around 3 million AAVE by March but have since stalled, showing no meaningful new buying activity.
The bearish on-chain signals are compounded by structural setbacks within the Aave protocol itself. The departure of key contributors — including BGD Labs and Chaos Labs — has fueled internal disagreements and eroded investor confidence. Crypto analyst Darkfost described market sentiment around Aave as "currently rather negative," suggesting investors are either capitulating or locking in remaining profits.
These developments pushed AAVE to an intraday low of $85.05 on April 7, its weakest price level since the October crash. The token has since recovered slightly to around $95, gaining approximately 2% alongside the broader crypto market following news of a US-Iran ceasefire. Whether this rebound is sustainable or a temporary relief rally remains uncertain given persistent whale distribution and weakening fundamentals.
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