Bitcoin Bottom Signals Strength as Onchain Metrics Turn Bullish

Bitcoin investors are closely watching whether the market established its bottom in early February, when BTC briefly dropped near $60,000 before recovering above $77,000. While no indicator can confirm a definitive market bottom, several key onchain and derivatives metrics suggest the worst phase of the correction may already be over.

One of the strongest signals comes from Bitcoin’s Realized Cap, a metric that measures the total value of BTC based on the price at which coins last moved onchain. Unlike standard market capitalization, Realized Cap reflects the aggregate cost basis of investors and provides insight into capital flows within the network. The metric previously climbed to around $1.12 trillion before declining to approximately $1.08 trillion as bitcoin fell more than 50% from its October all-time high. Despite the sharp correction, Realized Cap is now stabilizing and beginning to form a base, a pattern similar to previous bear market bottoms seen in 2022.

Another important indicator is the RHODL Ratio, which compares the wealth held by long-term bitcoin holders with newer investors. The ratio has now risen above 5, marking the third-highest level ever recorded. Historically, higher RHODL readings appeared during major cycle bottoms in 2015 and 2022, suggesting experienced holders continue accumulating BTC while newer market participants exit the market. Since February, long-term holders have reportedly added more than 400,000 BTC to their wallets.

Perpetual futures funding rates also provide a bullish signal for the crypto market. Between February and May, funding rates remained negative for one of the longest periods on record, reflecting extreme bearish sentiment and heavy short positioning. Historically, extended negative funding has often coincided with major bitcoin reversals, including the March 2023 banking crisis, the August 2024 yen carry trade unwind, and the April 2025 tariff-related selloff.

Together, these onchain metrics and derivatives indicators suggest bitcoin may be entering a recovery phase, with long-term investors regaining confidence in the broader cryptocurrency market.