Solana Faces Persistent Sell Pressure as FTX Unstaking Weighs on Price

Solana (SOL) edged lower on Friday ET, slipping 0.36% over the past 24 hours to trade around $66.66, as the market continued to weigh persistent supply overhang from the FTX estate against signs of steady activity across the network. While SOL remains up 10.31% on the week, it is still down 26.34% over the past month—an uneven performance that has kept investor attention firmly on near-term catalysts and liquidation flows.

According to CoinMarketCap data, Solana’s market capitalization stood at roughly $38.65 billion, ranking seventh among cryptocurrencies with an estimated 1.779% share of the total crypto market. Trading activity remained elevated, with 24-hour volume around $2.36 billion—an indicator that liquidity has stayed resilient even as price action has struggled to reclaim higher levels.

The dominant macro overhang for SOL continues to be ongoing sales tied to FTX and Alameda Research. Blockchain monitoring reports indicate that an FTX-linked wallet recently unstaked about 200,000 SOL—worth approximately $13.01 million—and transferred the tokens to major centralized exchanges including Coinbase and Binance, typically seen by traders as a precursor to distribution.

Since November 2023, the same set of wallets has withdrawn a cumulative 10.75 million SOL, and still holds an estimated 2.985 million SOL (roughly $200 million at current prices). That remaining balance is widely viewed as a source of ‘ongoing sell pressure.’ Even so, analysts note that the market has so far absorbed these flows without the kind of disorderly volatility often associated with large, predictable liquidation events.

Several market observers argue that SOL’s upside could remain capped until the FTX-related overhang is largely cleared. At the same time, they add that absent a deterioration in fundamentals—such as a sharp drop in usage, liquidity, or developer activity—the probability of an abrupt downside spiral appears lower than in prior cycles when liquidity was thinner.

Beyond the liquidation story, Solana bulls are pointing to an expanding narrative around ‘onchain capital markets’—particularly tokenized securities. Solana-related channels have highlighted plans for a SpaceX IPO-linked product to be accessible from the first day of listing through Solana-based tokenization issuers such as xStocks, Ondo, and Sunrise. While details and timelines remain subject to execution and regulatory constraints, proponents see the initiative as a signal that Solana is aiming to evolve beyond a high-throughput smart-contract network into infrastructure for tokenized financial assets.

Interest in tokenization has broadened across the industry as asset managers and fintech platforms experiment with bringing real-world assets onchain. In that context, Solana’s positioning in tokenized assets, DeFi, and stablecoin rails is increasingly framed as a potential magnet for ‘institutional demand,’ especially if products can be delivered with compliant distribution and reliable settlement.

Supply metrics remain a key part of the valuation discussion. Solana’s circulating supply was estimated at about 579.82 million tokens, with total supply near 628.30 million. Unlike capped-supply assets, Solana does not have a fixed maximum supply, which means investors must factor an inflationary issuance model into long-term assumptions. Using self-reported circulating supply figures of roughly 525.23 million, market capitalization was estimated around $35.0 billion, while fully diluted valuation (FDV) was put near $41.8 billion—an FDV premium of about 8.4% over spot market cap.

Trading structure data suggested a heavy reliance on centralized venues. Centralized exchanges accounted for approximately 99.9% of SOL’s 24-hour volume—around $2.364 billion—while decentralized exchange activity was reported at roughly $12,000, underscoring a high degree of liquidity concentration in CEX order books during the current phase of price discovery.

From a trend perspective, SOL was down 0.26% on the 1-hour window and 0.36% over 24 hours, but the larger picture remains mixed. Despite the weekly rebound, SOL is still down 22.35% over 60 days and 24.47% over 90 days, signaling that medium-term momentum remains under pressure. Solana’s 1.779% market share also reflects a smaller footprint than periods when it exceeded 2%, a dynamic market participants attribute in part to capital rotating toward Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as liquidity concentrates in large-cap benchmarks.

One constructive signal has been stability in turnover: 24-hour trading volume increased about 0.72%, suggesting market participation has not meaningfully deteriorated during the drawdown. Traders generally view steady volume during consolidation as a sign that a market is finding a clearing price rather than lapsing into illiquidity.

Looking ahead, analysts emphasize that Solana’s trajectory may hinge on whether the tokenization narrative translates into sustained ‘liquidity inflow’ from larger allocators. Solana remains held across the portfolios of several prominent crypto-focused investment firms, including CMS Holdings, Kenetic Capital, Multicoin Capital, and OKX Ventures, reflecting continued venture and ecosystem interest even amid cyclical volatility.

Still, the near-term variable most closely watched by traders remains the pace and method of the FTX estate’s remaining SOL disposition. With roughly 2.985 million SOL still associated with FTX-linked wallets, the market is likely to remain sensitive to exchange deposit patterns and any signals of accelerated selling.

For now, Solana continues to lean on its core pitch—high throughput and low fees—in an increasingly competitive Layer 1 landscape. If tokenized asset initiatives gain traction and DeFi activity remains resilient, the network could strengthen its case as a durable platform beyond speculative cycles. But until the FTX-related overhang is materially reduced, many investors expect SOL’s rallies to face meaningful supply at key resistance levels.