Ethereum Price Faces Split Outlook as Binance ETH Deposits Surge and Polymarket Bets Diverge

Ethereum (ETH) remains under pressure as investors weigh geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic risks, and conflicting market signals. While some traders are buying the recent weakness, others are rushing to exchanges to sell, highlighting the divided sentiment surrounding the second-largest cryptocurrency.

ETH was trading near $1,730, down about 1.6% over the past 24 hours but still roughly 7% higher for the week, according to BeInCrypto Markets. The latest decline followed heightened tensions between the United States and Iran, which have continued to weigh on risk assets.

Crypto analyst Darkfost described the market as being in a "phase of total indecision," citing geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over a potential Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. According to the analyst, even modest price swings are triggering emotional trading, as seen during Ethereum's recent drop toward the $1,500 level.

On-chain data from Binance reflects that uncertainty. During the recent sell-off, nearly 100,000 unique deposit addresses sent ETH to the exchange, one of the largest spikes recorded in the past three years. Rising exchange deposits are generally viewed as a sign of increasing selling pressure.

However, exchange withdrawals also climbed at the same time, suggesting another group of investors used the decline to accumulate Ethereum. Darkfost said the simultaneous rise in deposits and withdrawals highlights a sharply divided market, with some participants selling in fear while others view lower prices as a buying opportunity.

The same uncertainty is evident on prediction platform Polymarket. Traders currently assign a 75% probability that Ethereum will reach $2,000 in 2026, while also giving a 68% chance that it will fall to $1,500.

Trading activity remains concentrated around bearish targets. The $1,500 prediction has generated about $1.33 million in volume, while the $1,000 target has attracted roughly $1.26 million, significantly exceeding interest in bullish price levels above $2,000.

Ethereum has traded below $2,000 since early June and revisited the $1,500 support zone twice last month. With market participants split between accumulation and selling, the $1,500 level remains a key support area that bulls will need to defend.