Ethereum price fell 2.6% on September 15, trading near $2,446 as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Prediction markets indicate an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, but strong ETH exchange outflows suggest investors may be reluctant to sell.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez reported that roughly 140,000 ETH, worth about $350 million, was withdrawn from exchanges within 96 hours. Lower exchange balances can reduce available selling supply, potentially supporting Ethereum price if demand remains strong.
Santiment data reinforces the supply-tightening narrative. Ethereum held on exchanges has fallen sharply from 22.9 million ETH in June 2020 to around 6.06 million. Much of that decline reflects ETH moving into staking, exchange-traded funds, long-term wallets and corporate treasuries. Bitmine, for example, now reportedly controls 4.9% of Ethereum’s total supply.
Institutional demand is also strengthening. Ethereum ETFs attracted $121.02 million in inflows this week and have recorded five consecutive weeks of positive flows since the week ending August 21.
Meanwhile, derivatives activity has accelerated ahead of the Fed decision and the CLARITY Act vote. Ethereum open interest on Deribit reached $11.77 billion after increasing by about $700 million since September 12. Binance’s ETH long-to-short ratio also climbed to 3.10, its highest level since June 2026, signaling strong bullish positioning among traders.
Despite these positive indicators, Ethereum’s technical outlook remains vulnerable. ETH recently broke below the lower support trendline of an ascending channel on the daily chart as selling pressure increased. A daily close below $2,380 could expose Ethereum price to a deeper decline toward the $2,200 support level.
Momentum indicators also point to near-term weakness. The Relative Strength Index is approaching the neutral 50 level, while red Awesome Oscillator bars indicate bearish pressure remains present.
Ethereum therefore enters the Fed decision with conflicting signals: shrinking exchange supply, ETF inflows and bullish derivatives positioning support a potential recovery, while the technical breakdown leaves $2,200 at risk if sellers maintain control.
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