Bitcoin Holds Above Key Cost Levels as $95,000-$97,000 Test Nears
Bitcoin has never closed below realized price on a daily basis during the current bear market, while ETF inflows and spot volume have recovered.
Bitcoin (BTC) is holding above key on-chain cost levels as the market approaches resistance between $95,000 and $97,000, with ETF inflows and spot volume strengthening without a broad increase in leverage.
Bitcoin has never closed below its realized price on a daily basis during the current bear market. Unlike the 2018-19 and 2022-23 bear markets, Bitcoin has not recorded daily closes below that measure, and the June low also stayed above realized price.
If Bitcoin continues to hold above the roughly $77,000 true market mean, the June low would become the shallowest bear-market bottom since 2017. Bitcoin has also moved back above the true market mean and the long-term holder cost band, while the largest long-term holder supply cluster remains near $84,000-$85,000.
The next major resistance is near $96,700, the mean market-value-to-realized-value price. Options positioning adds another test around $95,000, where positive gamma surged to the highest reading on the chart within one day. Market-maker hedging could amplify moves between current prices and roughly $92,000 before slowing price action near $95,000.
Selling pressure remains limited. Weekly net realized profit during the current advance is still a small fraction of the levels recorded at the 2024 and 2025 market tops. Nearly all short-term holders have returned to profit, but realized profits remain well below those earlier peak levels.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.3 billion in combined net inflows over five trading days after two weeks of outflows. Twenty-four-hour spot volume across exchanges has more than doubled from its August low, rising about 121% since the rebound began.
The market’s cost bases and derivatives positioning are also reflected in the latest resistance analysis, which identified the $95,000-$97,000 area as the next major test.
Altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin, with 72.5% of the tracked group beating BTC over the past week. Coin-denominated altcoin perpetual-futures open interest has barely increased over the past 30 days, indicating that the move has been driven mainly by spot buying rather than a broad buildup in leverage.
Holding above $84,000 would leave the path toward the $96,700 resistance area open. A return below $84,000 would bring the roughly $77,000 true market mean back into focus.
