IBIT Options Signal Smaller Swings After Bitcoin Rebound
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) shows implied volatility of 37.4%, below its 45.5% realized volatility as Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $84,751.
Options traders are pricing smaller moves for BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) after Bitcoin’s recent rebound, with implied volatility well below the fund’s realized volatility over the past month.
IBIT’s implied volatility stood at 37.4%, compared with realized volatility of 45.5% over the 20 trading sessions through Sept. 22. The implied volatility rank was 11.9 based on Sept. 23 data, placing it near the low end of its 12-month range.
Implied volatility reflects the price swings traders expect in the future through options pricing. Realized volatility measures the asset’s actual past movements.
“In our view the options market appears to be pricing calmer conditions than the recent past produced,” investment and options strategist Koen Hoorelbeke wrote.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $84,751, up 1.6% over 24 hours, at the time of writing. The analysis identified resistance near $87,000, where Bitcoin’s advance stalled on Sept. 21, and support between $76,000 and $77,000.
The volatility readings come as the market approaches the scheduled expiration of about $15 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options on Friday, Sept. 25. The large batch of contracts adds a near-term event to the market’s focus as traders assess whether calmer options pricing will persist.
The contrast between implied and realized volatility shows that options pricing has become less aggressive than the fund’s recent trading history. It does not establish how prices will move after the contracts expire.
