Treasury Volatility Climbs as Bitcoin Options Stay Near 2026 Low
The ICE BofA MOVE Index closed at 104.58 on Sept. 24, while Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility stood near 37 against a 2026 low of about 35.
U.S. Treasury volatility surged through Thursday, Sept. 24, while Bitcoin’s options market remained near its 2026 low, highlighting a sharp divergence across major financial markets.
The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures expected volatility in U.S. bond yields, closed at 104.58 at 8 p.m. ET on Sept. 24 (00:00 UTC Sept. 25). The index rose from 78.56 on Sept. 22 and 95.45 on Sept. 23.
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied-volatility index, BVIV, stood at approximately 37, compared with a 2026 low near 35. The measure reflects expected Bitcoin volatility over the next 30 days based on options pricing.
The Cboe VIX, which tracks expected volatility in the S&P 500, closed at 15.67 on Sept. 24, using data available at 8:15 p.m. ET (00:15 UTC Sept. 25).
The 20-day correlation between MOVE and VIX was −0.06, while MOVE’s correlation with BVIV was −0.37. The figures show that Treasury volatility was moving differently from both U.S. equity and Bitcoin volatility during the period.
The divergence came as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached approximately 5.2% on Sept. 24 before easing to 5.163%. The move followed a broader bond-market selloff, while the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2004.
The market data does not establish that higher Treasury volatility caused a Bitcoin selloff or produced sustained stress across crypto markets.
