Analyst Sees 75% Chance Crypto Cycle Has Turned as Bitcoin Pulls Back
Bitcoin’s latest decline was shallower and shorter than previous bear markets, but the assessment does not rule out another drop.
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods senior equity research analyst Stephen Glagola assigned a 75% probability that the broader crypto cycle had turned, even as Bitcoin (BTC) pulled back from its latest recovery.
The assessment accompanied KBW’s resumed coverage of Coinbase. It describes a possible shift in the market cycle rather than a forecast for Bitcoin’s next price move, and does not rule out another decline.
Bitcoin fell 53% from its October 2025 peak to a June 30 closing low near $58,500. The decline lasted about 8.8 months, compared with roughly 12 months for the previous three bear markets, which averaged an 82% peak-to-trough decline.
Bitcoin closed near $84,400 on Sept. 26, about 44% above its June 30 close. It traded near $83,100 on Sept. 28, down about 1.6% from the previous session.
The assessment also noted that earlier Bitcoin recoveries followed by rallies of more than 30% later failed. That history limits the significance of a recovery without confirming that the broader cycle has changed.
KBW resumed coverage of Coinbase with an Outperform rating and a $237 price target. The assessment cited a $195.11 market price for the exchange.
Coinbase’s share of crypto trading volume rose to 10.3% in the second quarter from 9.1% in the first quarter. Average USDC holdings across its products reached $20 billion.
Bitcoin’s current market structure is diverging from earlier four-year cycles, suggesting that the traditional pattern may not apply consistently. The historical comparison remains focused on the depth and duration of past declines rather than a confirmed bottom.
